Species distribution models for conservation: identifying translocation sites for eastern quolls under climate change

Conservation and natural resource management are frequently hampered by poor understanding of how species distributions have changed over time. Species Distribution Models (SDMs) correlate known occurrences with environmental variables to predict a species’ potential range. These models can then be projected unsurveyed areas or time periods overcome gaps in data on distribution. The eastern quoll Dasyurus viverrinus is restricted Tasmania but until recently occurred large area south-eastern mainland Australia. We used SDMs reconstruct the distribution climates suitable for D. during mid-Holocene present day identified likely remain future which could prioritised conservation. Climatically habitat has mostly remained stable since mid-Holocene, some expansion. historic contraction was evidently due threatening processes other than climate change, still operating. Under current conditions, Australia provide quolls will continue do so under predicted change scenarios 2055. Suitable include offshore islands, particular islands within Nooramunga Marine Coastal Park Victoria, that make up Furneaux Group Bass Strait. Translocations these would establish populations climatically separate from processes.